We should find out over the course of the next 24 hours which tier of restrictions that Herefordshire will be put under.
According to reports, the decision will be made based on the following factors:
- Case detection rates in all age groups
- Case detection rates in the over-60s
- The rate at which cases are rising or falling
- Positivity rate (the number of positive cases detected as a percentage of tests taken)
- Pressure on the NHS, including current and projected occupancy
Now an article shared by The Daily Mail, showed that Herefordshire was at risk of entering Tier 3 restrictions due to an increase in cases early in November. The reality is that since then, we have actually seen a sharp fall, with data in the week up to the 19th November showing an infection rate in the county of 160 cases per 100,000 population. However, if you use more recent data, based on the seven days up to the 22nd November, you can see that the infection rate falls dramatically.
Despite this, some areas of the county are experiencing fairly high COVID-19 infection rates, with the South Wye area of Hereford City the main area of concern, but even here, infection rates have shown signs of falling over recent days.
So which tier is Herefordshire likely to end up under? Herefordshire Council warned prior to the national lockdown, that tougher restrictions would have to be implemented in the county if infection rates rose above 100 cases per 100,000 population. With this in mind and with the likelihood of very few places being under Tier 1 restrictions, it would appear that Tier 2 (High) restrictions are most likely.
What does that mean? Well if we end up under Tier 2 restrictions, the rules will be as follows:
How restrictions look if we were placed under Tier 1 or Tier 3:
